指导教师：景 天 魁             答辩日期2005年5月26日

论 文 摘 要
    市场风险下的农民市场参与行为研究，在当前发展和完善市场经济体制以及农业的市场化、产业化进程背景下，是一项具有理论意义和现实意义的研究。本文从国家动员和市场化进程的角度对农民在市场风险下的市场参与行为进行了理论分析和经验研究，探索了农民面对市场风险的行为逻辑。
    斯科特、米格代尔等研究农民行为的学者认为农民在面对市场风险时的行为模式是风险回避，生存安全第一。结合文献分析和中国农村的改革实践，本文提出与斯科特等人不同的研究命题：随着市场化的深入和国家动员力度的减弱，农民的市场参与行为由风险忽视趋于风险规避。本文采取从理论阐述到宏观分析，再到中观分析，最后到微观解释的叙述策略,采用定性为主、定量为辅的研究方法，通过对中部两个乡村的个案研究，对命题进行了论证和解释。
全文共分六章：
    第一章是导论。包括问题的提出、文献综述、基本概念与研究命题、研究设计、研究特色与研究意义。
    第二章分析了中国农村改革的动员特征及农村市场化的启动。始于20世纪70年代末的农村改革不仅仅是一次制度变迁，改革具有浓厚的国家动员色彩。动员式改革开启了中国农村市场化的进程。
    第三章探讨了农民市场风险的来源。农民的市场风险有两个基本来源，一是作为一般性市场的风险；二是作为制度的市场的特殊性引发的风险。前者是一个市场变迁的问题：在由传统小市场向现代大市场的变迁中，风险逐渐成为市场的一个内在因素；后者是一个农民市场参与权利不足的问题：动员式改革启动了市场化进程，调动了农民的市场参与热情（需要），却没有为农民的市场参与提供足够的手段（权利）。
    第四章分析了市场化的深入与国家动员的历程。随着市场化进程的深入，国家动员的力度减弱，这一方面是出于国家动员政策的调整，另一方面是出于在市场环境下国家动员手段的失灵。
    第五章通过调查材料和数据探讨了农民在市场风险下的市场参与行为。随着市场化的深入和国家动员力度的减弱，农民市场参与行为的动力由“欲望”转变为“需要”；随着市场化的深入和国家动员力度的减弱，农民的市场参与行为由风险忽视趋于风险规避；随着市场化的深入和国家动员力度的减弱，农民逐渐将市场参与的损失原因由归结于权利的主观方面不足转向归结于权利的客观方面不足。
    第六章是结论。在市场化的进程中，农民的市场参与行为逐渐由风险忽视趋于风险规避，这是一个由农民理性向经济理性转化的过程，国家的动员政策应对农民的市场参与行为及其转变负责。动员是一种非常规的手段，具有二重性，对动员手段的运用要适时、适当；动员和制度的共进互补是扬动员之长补其之短的可行之策。

关键词：动员   市场化   市场风险   市场参与行为   风险忽视   风险规避
Abstract
Analysis on peasants’ market participation behavior under the market risk is a research full of theory and reality significance, on the background of developing and perfecting market economy system, marketization and industrialization of agriculture. Theory analysis and empirical research are carried out on peasants’ market participation behavior from the viewpoint of state mobilization and marketization process, therefore, the behavior logic of peasants faced with market risk being probed into.
The scholars researching peasants’ behavior, like Scott, Migdal, think that the behavior mode of peasants will be risk avoiding and subsistence safety-first when they are faced with market risk. On the basis of literatures analysis and the practice of China rural reform, this paper raise an essential proposition different from Scott, that is, with the process of marketization and the wakening of state mobilization, peasants’ market participation behavior changed increasingly from risk neglecting into risk hedging. This dissertation testifies the proposition through the case research on two villages, central section in China. In this research, the narrative scheme from theory elaborating to macroscopic analysis, then to middle-level discuss, finally to microcosmic expounding and the research method of combing quality and quantity research are adopted.
This dissertation consists of six chapters.
The first chapter is introduction. This chapter consists of the raise of study topic, summary of the documents, basic conceptions and theoretical propositions, research design, the main characteristics and significance of this study.
The second chapter analyses the mobilization characteristics of China rural reform and the start of rural marketization. The rural reform of beginning from the final phase of the 1970s is not merely a process of system change, but endowed with pronounced state mobilization color. The mobilizing type reform starts the process of rural marketization.
The third chapter inquires into the source of market risk that peasants have to face with. Peasants’ market risk has two basic sources, first, the risk deriving from the general market; second, the risk coming from the particularity of market as the system. The former is a question about market change. In the process of changing from local traditional market to large modern market, market risk becomes gradually an inherent factor of market. The latter is a question about the insufficient rights of peasants’ market participation. Mobilizing type reform starts the marketization process and arouses peasants’ enthusiasm (need) of market participation, but invalid to offer enough means (rights) for peasants’ market participation behavior.
The forth chapter analyses the deepening process of marketization and the course of state mobilization. With the deepening of marketization process, dynamics of state mobilization is weakened. The weakening is attributed to the factors of two respects: on the one hand the adjustment of state mobilization polices, on the other hand, the not working of state mobilization under the market environment.
The fifth chapter inquires into peasants’ market participation behavior under the market risk through the investigate materials and data. With the deepening of marketization and the weakening of state mobilization, the motive force of peasants’ market participation behavior is transformed into the need from the desire; peasants’ market participation behavior tends towards risk hedging from risk neglecting; the loss of market participation is attributed to the insufficiency in objective respect of rights from the insufficiency in subjective respect of rights by peasants.
The sixth chapter is conclusion. In the process of marketization, peasants’ market participation behavior tends towards risk hedging from risk neglecting, which is a transformation course from peasants ration to economic ration. State mobilization polices are responsible for peasants’ market participation behavior and the transformation of peasants behavior. Mobilization is not unconventional means for development. Because of the dual characters of mobilization, the use of means of mobilization should be in good time, proper. It should complementary to mobilize with the system, which is a good scheme of full-developing the merit while avoiding the shortcomings of mobilization.

Key words: mobilization;  marketization;  market risk;  market participation behavior;  risk neglect;  risk hedging.

目录

第一章  导论 1
第一节  问题的提出 1
第二节  文献综述 3
一、农民行为研究 3
二、农民市场风险研究 7
三、文献简评 9
第三节  基本概念、基本命题与研究角度 10
一、基本概念 10
二、基本命题 13
三、研究角度 14
第四节  研究设计 17
一、理论工具 17
二、调查地点和研究对象 19
三、调查研究方法 21
第五节  研究的特色与意义 23
一、研究的特色 23
二、研究的意义 24
第二章  动员式改革与市场化的启动 25
第一节  关于动员 25
一、动员的含义 25
二、中国社会的动员传统 26
三、动员与制度 28
第二节  中国农村改革的动员特征 29
第三节  动员的意义 32
一、动员的二重性 32
二、动员与市场化的启动 33
三、国家与农民关系视野中的市场化 36
第三章  农民市场风险的来源 38
第一节  作为市场脱域机制的不良后果而存在的农民市场风险 38
一、“脱域”与市场变迁 39
二、农民面对的市场的变迁 42
三、农民的市场风险 47
第二节  作为动员与权利矛盾的后果而存在的农民市场风险 49
一、农民市场参与权利的客观方面与主观方面 49
二、动员式改革与农民市场参与权利的不足 51
第四章  市场化的深入与动员的历程 59
第一节  市场化的深入 59
第二节  国家动员的尴尬 62
第三节  W市和H区的动员历程 64
第四节  农民市场参与的阶段、概况及动员案例 68
一、农民市场参与的阶段划分 68
二、河村和彭村的市场化概况 69
三、动员案例 72
第五章  农民市场参与行为 77
第一节  从欲望到需要 77
第二节  农民的市场参与行为 84
一、农民的投资行为 84
二、农民的市场信息意识 94
三、农民对价格信号的反应 98
四、农民对产品销路的关注 102
第三节  农民市场参与的损失归因 104
第六章  结论 109
参考文献 117
后记 123